 | FINPOLCONSULT | aduebel@finpolconsult.de
Welcome to FINPOLCONSULT, the financial and real estate sector specialist My company offers independent economic, market and legal-regulatory analysis and advice at the intersection of both sectors - especially in mortgage capital markets, mortgage lending and insurance, and housing policy. My goal is to support the global knowledge base, help to develop more efficient and competitive businesses as well as transparent, stabiity-oriented and socially responsible public policies in this area.
For this commitment, I stand with my name. |  |
Hans-Joachim (Achim) Dübel
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LATEST ACTIVITIES
December 2011: Presentation given at the Korean Development Institute international conference on 'A New Paradigm for Housing Policy', Seoul Dec 12-13, on the transatlantic mortgage crisis.
November 2011: release of a January 2011 (in empirical substance early 2010) paper with Simon Walley @ World Bank on the causes, consequences and ideas for the regulation of foreign currency mortgage lending in Central and Eastern Europe. We analyzed 4 countries in somewhat greater depth than usual: Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Ukraine. Our key point is that - in long-term mortgages - some countries cannot avoid doing FX lending, while others can and should. Those who can't should focus on developing material protections against downside risk for both borrowers and banks rather than doing stop and go with FX product bans.
September 2011: Comment on the U.S. interagency conflict that broke the monetary policy transmission channel for mortgages. Essentially, until the summer of 2011 Federal Reserve zero interest rate policies, sponsored by savers, have recapitalized the former Government-sponsored Enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as U.S. banks holding mortgage bonds, rather than benefiting U.S. consumers. By the fall of 2001 a consensus seems to be emerging that - even as consumer debt levels remain way too high - at least lower policy rates should be passed through directly to consumers, allowing for indirect positive feedback effects on the industry.
An indirect exchange in Handelsblatt with Allianz SE on EFSF partial sovereign bond insurance: my suggestion to focus on a catastrophic loss instead of first loss insurance here, reaction by Allianz here.
August 2011: CEPS paper calling for a Eurozone Partial Sovereign Bond Insurance Scheme instead of blue ('Euro') bonds. Partial bond insurance builds on principles already agreed on during recent rescue operations, such as catastrophic risk protection for investors, while reducing the moral hazard contained in the full insurance provided by blue bonds. It strikes a compromise between moderating fiscal cost for net guarantee sponsors and reducing marginal cost of funds for net guarantee beneficiaries to economically sustainable levels.
FT Alphaville post on below paper highlighting the challenge for central banks, courtesy Tracy Alloway.
June 2011: Paper for CEPS Brussels regarding a new European Retail Mortgage Credit regime in consumer protection. The paper takes a transatlantic perspective of the retail
mortgage sector crisis we are currently facing, an approach which was not possible to take under the EU DG Markt study below. The launch of the paper was on June 23 at CEPS, with EU parlamentarians Antolin Sanchez-Presedo (Spain), Vicky Ford (United Kingdom) and Sven Giegold (Germany) present and commenting. My brief presentation during the event is here.
March 2011: EU DG Markt launch of the Study on the Costs and Benefits of Different Policy Options for Mortgage Credit, co-authored by Finpolconsult/Achim Dübel with London Economics. The study already had been submitted by the authors in Fall 2009. DG Markt decided to publish it only together with her Proposal for a Directive on credit agreement related to residential property and the associated Impact Asssessment. DG Markt mortgage credit website is here. The site has also our extensive legal baseline annex.
I have separated the section of the above study on Early Repayment, which is of potential interest for anybody looking into fixed-rate mortgage lending regulation regimes. Download here.
Other consulting work, e.g. on Brazilian and Mexican housing finance (not to be published).
Jan 2011 Paper analyzing the excessive borrower leverage problem in U.S. mortgage finance and suggesting to address it (inter alia) via contract savings for housing (Bausparen)
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